Kashmir has always been celebrated for its delightful weather and breathtaking natural landscapes. The picturesque Kashmir Valley, cradled in the majestic Himalayas, has been profoundly influenced by a rich tapestry of weather phenomena over the course of centuries, leaving an indelible mark on its captivating history and vibrant culture.
Historical evidence suggests that Kashmir underwent a period of significantly lower temperatures in the first millennium BCE. During the reign of the Mauryan Empire from 322 to 185 BCE, winters were characterised by frequent frost and snowfall, accompanied by a significant drop in temperatures. During his visit to Kashmir in 629 CE, the esteemed Chinese scholar Hiuen Tsang observed the majestic mountains adorned with perpetual snow, while the valleys below enjoyed a refreshing and temperate climate. During the period from the 8th to the 12th centuries, Kashmir experienced a notable contrast in its climate. Under the rule of Hindu and Buddhist leaders, the region witnessed relatively mild and pleasant summers, while the winters were characterised by freezing temperatures and icy conditions.
In his Rajatarangini, a historical account written in the 12th century, Jonaraja vividly describes the harsh winters of the mediaeval era. During this time, the frigid temperatures were so extreme that even mighty rivers like Jhelum would freeze over, creating a stunning spectacle. Additionally, he made observations about the spring seasons, which were characterised by abundant rainfall, and the summers, which were pleasantly accompanied by occasional showers. In the Ain-i-Akbari, Abul Fazl, the court historian of Mughal Emperor Akbar, documented the climate of Kashmir as characterised by frigid winters and comparably scorching summers. He marvelled at the breathtaking beauty of the Valley in spring, with its orchards bursting into a vibrant display of blossoms.
In the early 19th century, European travellers such as Moorcroft and Vigne offered detailed descriptions of Kashmir’s weather patterns and seasonal variations. They vividly depicted the harsh winter conditions, with mountain passes becoming impassable due to heavy snowfall. The summer months were filled with warmth and delight, while autumn brought about clear blue skies and the gentle descent of leaves from the majestic chinar trees. The arrival of spring, with its vibrant blossoms and flourishing orchards, was hailed as a captivating spectacle.
During the establishment of the initial meteorological observations in Kashmir by the British in 1884, Srinagar recorded an average annual rainfall of 650 mm, with March being the month with the highest precipitation. The summers in this region are characterised by mild temperatures, while the winters can be quite cold, with occasional drops in temperature to as low as -8 degrees Celsius. The seasons displayed a remarkable range of variability, showcasing delightful weather during the spring and autumn months, sandwiched between periods of intense cold and scorching heat.
Throughout the 20th century, there was a noticeable upward trend in temperatures and a significant increase in the variability of precipitation patterns. Veterans fondly recalled the days when winters were adorned with heavy snowfall, piling up several feet high. However, such occurrences have become increasingly rare in recent times. Extended periods of drought have been occurring, with minimal rainfall lasting for several weeks. These dry spells are occasionally interrupted by sudden, heavy downpours, resulting in flooding. Climate change has led to accelerated glacier retreat and shifts in the timing of flowering seasons, all attributed to the rising temperatures experienced during spring.
In the Kashmir valley, the average annual temperatures have been consistently higher in recent decades, ranging from 22 to 25 degrees Celsius. The frequency and consistency of rainfall have decreased, while winter snowfall continues to be observed at higher elevations. The annual precipitation varies significantly across different regions, with the southern Jammu area receiving a substantial amount of rainfall at 1115 mm, while Ladakh in the arid east experiences a much drier climate with only 70 mm of precipitation. Over the past few decades, Srinagar has experienced a significant rise in its annual rainfall. It is not uncommon to experience drastic shifts in weather, such as a sudden drop in temperatures from 20 to -2 degrees Celsius within a 24-hour period during winter.
A comprehensive analysis reveals that Kashmir is expected to experience a significant shift in climate patterns in the near future. Scientific studies indicate that rising temperatures and greater fluctuations in rainfall are anticipated as a result of global climate change. It is anticipated that there will be an increase in glacial melting, heat waves, and droughts, while winter snowfall may become irregular and extreme. Adapting to the changing climate will pose a significant challenge for agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. The breathtaking allure of the valley, which has captivated countless poets and explorers over the ages, remains influenced by its rugged landscape and unique weather patterns in the present day. In order to ensure the long-term preservation of Kashmir’s breathtaking beauty and fragile ecosystem, it is imperative to address the challenges posed by climate change. This requires taking proactive measures to minimise the impact of climate change on the region, while also safeguarding the livelihoods of its inhabitants.